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Posts
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Eli,
It was pretty clear that, as a comparison to granite (natural stone) you gave the checkered flag to stone. No big deal to me, but that was the impression you gave. I think your reasons are flawed to a large extent and I said so. Sorry if it offended you.you wrote:
there is always a market for high end stones with beautiful grain that just can not be reproduced by man solid surface looks like plastic seriously how can you compare these to thingsYou have given me the impression that stone is, in your opinion, much better than solid surface. Nothing wrong with thinking that way, but I trust I can disagree without being accused of getting uptight. I can compare those two materials by recognizing that each has flaws and features. Am I wrong? I have no problem with quartz, stone, solid surface and laminate (and all the other stuff) being used as countertop materials.
i may not be conveying my point very well so i will try to start fresh here.
I’m a fabricator NOT EXCLUSIVE OR FAVORING ONE PRODUCT OVER THE OTHER i don’t care what the product is what i care about is what sells in the market i deal in. when i see a topic like this all i can think is that if the price gos up any more on solid surface it wont be competitive any more.
as for what i wrote i think it is absolutely 100% correct there will always be a market for high end stone.
Eli, what do you think are the worst problems with natural stone tops?
I agree with both you and the original poster on the oil topic. It is a quandary. I, like you, am actually looking forward to the next material to take the countertop industry by storm. I think that most of the green materials will need to be produced significantly cheaper than they are now to gab any significant market share. So what’s next?
Rich, your 100% correct, most will choose the ho hum colors… BUT to get the attention of the designers we need to offer them something WOW. That gets their attention, and then they pick the brown speckly stuff..
To the point of this thread, I saw these two articles today… timely
http://www.environmentalleader.com/…te-change/
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/UK/fun…egoryid=13
Both are worth the time to read, neither are very long.
So once again, what happens to the price of SS if oil is $200.. or higher. And, given that oil, and most likely the cost of SS will be higher in the future, what effect will that have? I didn’t intend this to be a us against them, there are plenty of that online.
Will it kill solid surface? Will it drive some mfg out of the business and allow more room for the margins needed to promote SS ?
Rich, perhaps you can tell us what percentage of a typical sheet of acrylic filled SS is resin? If resin doubles, does that add 10%, 25% or ??? to that cost?
So once again, what happens to the price of SS if oil is $200.. or higher. And, given that oil, and most likely the cost of SS will be higher in the future, what effect will that have? I didn’t intend this to be a us against them, there are plenty of that online.
what i was trying to get at in a round about way is that solid surface is already having problems if the price go’s up i think it will be imposable to recover. do they have a cheep way to produce it?
Eli, what do you think are the worst problems with natural stone tops?
#1= hacks they damage a good products reputation
#2 = poor customer education if your going to produce stone ( or any product for that matter) than you have to take the time to know what you are working with and pass that info onto the customers so that they are 100% aware of what they are buying.
there is no problems with the material its self all materials have there pros and cons and solid surface has as many as stone. debating that is a whole other thread it does not rely apply to this topic
as far as what is the hot thing…. if i knew i would be developing it rite now
SS can be a designers dream if we market it. So when something is a dream they’ll pay whatever price. I would hope Sheet manufactures.are already thinking of this and are preparing.Ever wonder why Southwest airlines is so much cheaper than the other airlines? They saw a few years ago that the price for jet fuel was go to go thru the roof. So they made a deal and purchased enough fuel for ten years at the current price.Perhaps the sheet guys should think of that.No need to put the white flag up before the war starts. We need point menEli,
Thank you. I think both your #1 and #2 points are valid for almost any surfacing product.Jon,
I agree, but there are very few designers willing to spend the time, or have the talent, to make interesting designs. There are great kitchen design firms out there, but I would say that only 10 – 15% have the vision to move beyond great trim and shape in their designs, to move on using the other elements in the kitchen to add that special something.Yes, SS is a great material, it has it’s pros and cons as with any but it is great. If we could get more designers going with the design capability of the material AND the fabrication, SS might make a comeback.
About a year ago, the old ISSFA developed a kit to help fabricators show designers how to that with SS. They gave 1,000 of the kits away free. How many that got the kit have given at least one presentation to a designer? (Sterling does not count as you were doing it long before the ISSFA kit)
Wags,
Lenny is the expert and can probably answer much better than I can but from what little I know the typical Sheet, sink, or bowl is 30% – 40% resin which will vary by color and the manufacturing process. Should oil go to $200.00 all the recycled content in a product will not matter, that $200.00 price tag will affect the 30%-40% content because the resin is primarily made with Styrene which is a by product of the production of gasoline.
Currently styrene production has been cut back in order to reduce availabilty against demand and thus increase the price.I would defer to Lenny on this because of his extensive expertise and my lack thereof. I’m relatively new to this industry (nine years) having come out of the electrical wire and cable industry (35 years) where we also dealt with commodities, plastic, copper and aluminum which were and are subject to the same extremes of price escalation.
Respectfully,
GEMSTONEBring your samples and port folio here?
Posted By Rich Magee on 22 Jan 2010 08:22 AM
Wags,Lenny is the expert and can probably answer much better than I can but from what little I know the typical Sheet, sink, or bowl is 30% – 40% resin which will vary by color and the manufacturing process. Should oil go to $200.00 all the recycled content in a product will not matter, that $200.00 price tag will affect the 30%-40% content because the resin is primarily made with Styrene which is a by product of the production of gasoline.
Currently styrene production has been cut back in order to reduce availabilty against demand and thus increase the price.I would defer to Lenny on this because of his extensive expertise and my lack thereof. I’m relatively new to this industry (nine years) having come out of the electrical wire and cable industry (35 years) where we also dealt with commodities, plastic, copper and aluminum which were and are subject to the same extremes of price escalation.
Respectfully,
GEMSTONEThanks for the kind words Mr Magee.
From reading the thread, I believe the question at hand was the resin content of solid surface. Your range of 30-40% is a pretty good estimate, as it varies by pattern and manufacturer. I apologize for the length of this post.
For example, some SS patterns can go down to the low 50% range to achieve certain visual effects. Also I typically ran solid patterns at 32% resin or so while in china to reduce costs. Maybe 70-80% of the Raw Material costs for poly blend solid surface sheets are resin costs.
Styrene is oil based and is derived from ethyl benzene (which comes from petroleum) via steam cracking if memory serves correctly. The polyester portion, (which is also petroleum based) is generally more expensive than the styrene (monomer portion). A polyester resin is around 30% or so styrene (give or take a few per cent depending upon the particular resin).
It doesnt get any better for acrylic SS either. Acrylic resin tends to be more expensive than polyester although great pains have been taken to reduce costs. Acrylic is based on MMA (methyl methacrylate). MMA is manufactured by many different processes. One of the lowest cost methods of production is the alpha method starting with ethylene, carbon monoxide and methanol as raw materials. However since ethylene is manufactured from natural gas and methanol by various processes (most commonly from petroleum or natural gas) its still at the mercy of oil pricing.
This is also not good news for engineered stone, which generally comes into country in 20 foot containers. Container amounts depend on thickness and packaging. For example a 2CM thickness shipped in an open top 20 foot container can get a minimum of 90 slabs, per container, each weighing about 211 kgs (465 lbs) for a 55 x 120 inch nominal slab. (6600 sq inches or 45.83 sq feet).
The polyester resin percent of E stone generally doesnt go below 7% by weight. So per slab of E stone there are 32.55 lbs of resin. 32.55/ 45.83 = 0.71 pounds of resin per square foot.
Comparing that to solid surface, a container can hold a minimum of 300 ½ inch sheets (30 inch by 144 inch or 4320 sq inches or 30 sq feet per sheet) depending on packaging. Each sheet weighs about 130 pounds or so (depending on nominal thickness, formulation blah blah). Lets take the 40% of 130 lbs for 52 pounds of resin. 52 lbs resin/30 sq ft per sheet = 1.73 lbs of resin per sq foot.
0.71/1.73 = 0.41 As resin costs rise due to oil, the raw material increases for E stone should be about 41% of the raw material increases for solid surface. I found this a fun mental exercise to do, and many people find it surprising that although E stone is only 7% resin by weight compared to solid surface being 40% or so that there is still quite a lot of resin in Estone (because the filler for Estone is much heavier than the filler for Solid Surface making Estone a heavy product).Also consider that The weight of resin per 3 CM slab of ES goes up by 50% (multiply 2 x 1.5 to obtain 3) when compared to 2 CM ES, and the amount of resin per 3 CM sheet of SS goes up quite bit too (Im guessing about 2.36 times the weight of resin in a ½ inch thick sheet!. For those interested please do the calculations.
These are rough calculations, just meant to inspire thought. For example the resin percent could be lower for some solid surface, and higher for some E stone patterns. I also neglected waste factors (like useable slab area etc.)and variability in costs of differeing formulations of polyester resin.
It isn’t all roses for granite either. As oil prices go up, so do transportation costs (for all surfacing) and mining costs. Although granite is much more insulated from oil price increases than SS or ES.
However all is not lost! There is such a thing as innovation.
I increased filler to 68% in the past to reduce costs. Im confident I can design a system increasing filler even more to 75% or so. (Your tool wear will go up, but it will help mitigate price increases.
There are innovations in natural resins, like the cashew shell oil based products.
Methanol (one of the feedstocks for MMA) can be made from wood instead of petroleum.Ethyl benzene (feedstock for styrene) can also be made from coal, (coke) a byproduct of the steel industry.
Almost any chemical can be made using alcohols derived from fermentation processes as a feedstock. If the oil gets expensive enough people will look to processing coal, and alternate processes/feedstocks to keep prices down.
Innovation in design can also command a higher pricepoint.
Recycling to reduce waste can also play a small part in containing rising costs.
In short rising oil prices will make manufacturers innovate. Those who don’t will die, those who do get whats left of the pie.
Lenny ver informative post, thank you. So, ok, oil is now $200 a barrel. Lets’ play with some numbers. If a sheet of solid surface currently is priced at $400, and oil is at $80. If oil goes to $200 a barrel, a 250% increase. Then we can assume that the SS sheet will go to $610. If you take 35% of the $400 ( I know the 40% is on the cost of the sheet not the sell, but assume all % margins remain the same) then $140 of the sheet is resin. If that resin cost increases to $350, an increase of 250%, then the sheet price becomes $610.
At $610 a sheet, what happens to the industry? What happens to us? Yes, laminate will go up, but the sheet of laminate is a smaller percentage of the cost of a laminate countertop, PB and labor are larger costs. ES will go up, but again, not as large in $ since the amount is less.
I have no doubt, even at my advanced age…ummm. I will live to see $200 oil.. perhaps even higher. Lets pretend this is 2020, not 2010. What is our industry going to look like?
I will add, that I think we are going to see a real return to value. Value is what SS is all about. After 10 years of use, for a reasonable cost, you can peel off that layer of wear and have a counter that will look like it did the day it was installed… no other product can do that as cost effective.
Lenny, what can be done to limit scratching, other than making the product impossible to fabricate as we know it today. Is there a possibility of color matched ATH? Some sort of post fabrication curing to improve hardness and make it more scratch resistant? Anything else?
Hi Wags,
That’s an interesting post. I didn’t check your numbers, as youre old and wise (like me). Lets assume 610 dollars p-er sheet is absolutely correct. However some sheets of designer patterns are going for 800 dollars now. Again my point is that DESIGN commands a higher pricepoint.
With that said I assume your calcs are for the common solids etc. in the wake of 200 buck a barrel oil. When compared to E stone, the price of 610 per sheet isn’t all that bad.
As for scratching, Avonite holds a patent on dyeing ATH to the color of the background pattern. The material still scratches but cant be seen (in other words arent visible). I know this having developed similar technology and being unable to patent the thing because of prior patents by Avonite. Now why this may be more expensive to produce, eventually oil price rises will outpace any expense involved.
The interesting thing about process patents is that the term of patent protection (filing prior 1995) is generally 20 years from filing date or 17 years from issue date depending . Extensions are possible if the patent office delays the issue etc. However my point is that this is already a patent filing. The reasons patents expire is that WE as a society want companies to make money from patents so we give them a term of exclusivity, but eventually we want the technology into the public domain where we can all benefit from said technology without a monopoly price.
If memory serves correctly that patent was filed before 1995, so the clock is ticking regardless of file date. A few years to go!
As for scratch resistance, I did a lot of work on hardening the SURFACE of solid surface, making it easy to cut, but yet scratch resistant. Maybe someone will pay me for that someday!
I hope this helps!
BTW Wags, PM me with your email, I know you are NO fan of the AR15, M16 etc. I just saw a video on Bushmaster that had me in tears from laughing so hard. Its hilarious. A must see!
I think that was Lon that worked on the ATH wasn’t it ? Don’t understand why they would not want to use that in the darker colors.. set themselves apart. I don’t understand why no one would want your knowledge of how to “harden” solid surface, scratching is the #1 complaint I got from residential customers.
Thanks Lenny
Good point Wags,
The limited feedback I got back from Avonite peeps was that it was too much trouble for the corporation to actually do the dyed ATH, but they patented it to prevent anyone else from doing so. Who knows?
But the clock is ticking on that patent, when it runs out, Im sure someone will avail themselves to that.
Scratching is the number 1 complaint, but the MBAs (and theres a new crop of them every year) just dont seem to think its important as they are removed from the product and factory and generally insulated in offices with numbers and reams of paper. BTW the MBA IMO is one of the the most useless degrees in the world and In thier minds stands for “Master Bout Anything”.
Hope this helps.
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